000 AXNT20 KNHC 110558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE GOING TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE...AND THEN RETURN TO GALE-FORCE ANOTHER 12 HOURS LATER...AT THE 30- HOUR TIME DURING THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 9N15W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 3N30W 3N44W...AND TO 1N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 4N17W... FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INTO MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 26N96W. ONE PART OF A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER PART OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER TO 23N95W...AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N SOUTHWARD FROM 85W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 14N100W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH 18N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH 22N78W IN CUBA...AND THEN WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N78W BEYOND 28N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR THE FOLLOWING SITES...ICAO STATIONS KEHC AND KMDJ ARE REPORTING FAIR SKIES. STATIONS KVAF AND KEIR ARE REPORTING NO CLOUD CEILINGS AT THE MOMENT. STATIONS KVBS AND KSPR ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG/VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST REPORTED FROM THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS FROM BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR IN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA...AND AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A CLEAR SKY IS BEING REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA...AFTER A LOW CLOUD CEILING OBSERVATION FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER PARTS OF THE WIND FLOW CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...AND THEN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. 700 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W EASTWARD. BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS-BEYOND-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N71W 14N68W 10N66W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.04 IN CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N84W IN COSTA RICA TO 6N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF 700 MB SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW...ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH PASSES 23N67W TO 20N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE ADJACENT WATERS THAT ARE FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH THAT CUTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INITIALLY MOVES EASTWARD. HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE A RIDGE THAT EVENTUALLY BUILDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL ENCOMPASS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL OPEN INTO A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND/OR TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N60W AND 20N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N76W TO 27N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W 24N65W 20N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.15 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 26N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 20N23W...TO 19N31W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N31W TO 17N45W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N38W TO 6N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N15W...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO SENEGAL...AND TO GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N14W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N62W 24N65W 20N72W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT