000 AXNT20 KNHC 102345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W TO 20N95W. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS. AS THE LOW MOVES N-NE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT DECREASING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NE TO E GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEA HEIGHTS DURING THAT PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 10-13 FT. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 06N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N44W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 21W-26W...AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 29W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N103W. THE SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT N-NE AND CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A 1022 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W INTO THE LOW CENTER AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N96W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW GULF PRIMARILY N OF 25N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF N OF 20N W OF 86W. OTHERWISE...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE...MID-ATLC...AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WITH A PORTION OF THIS RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. AS STATED ABOVE...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY BE REINFORCED WEDNESDAY MOVING EAST OF THE BASIN LATE THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE REINFORCING ENERGY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RELATIVELY WEAK OVERALL TROUGHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS LENDING ITSELF TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. TRADES ARE GENERALLY FRESH TO STRONG WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THESE TRADES TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGHING THAT EMERGES OFF THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADES...OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N71W TO 28N62W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN THE ADJACENT NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS THIS TROUGHING DRIFTS WESTWARD...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO SUNDAY AS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ALOFT. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE INCREASING TRADES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION STRENGTHENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE VICINITY OF 34N69W. THIS ENERGY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 39N60W TO 31N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SE WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING AND A BREAK WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA N-NE TO 28N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 68W-74W... AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 60W-63W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN