000 AXNT20 KNHC 101759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS TO RESUME IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NE TO E GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W SAT NIGHT TO SUN MORNING. SEA HEIGHTS DURING THAT PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET. GALE WINDS WILL RESUME AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N20W 01N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY FOUR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N97W TO 23N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN SUPPORTS NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT ON THE NW GULF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN CONVERGING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 90W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY SUN MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN EVENING...MOVING ACROSS THE NE BASIN MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO INCLUDE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE KEEPS THE BASIN CONVECTIVE FREE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW AND SE BASIN DUE TO PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ON THE ISLAND AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CEASE LATE TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SW N ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N74W TO 24N80W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N64W TO 18N70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE TROUGH DRIFTS E-NE. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC TUE MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR