000 AXNT20 KNHC 101113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET EXIST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE GOING TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE...AND THEN RETURN TO GALE-FORCE IN 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA...NOT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...TO 6N16W 5N20W 2N23W 1N30W AND 1N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N10W 6N20W 4N30W 4N44W 5N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 30N107W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 25N97W TO 22N96W TO 19N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR THE FOLLOWING SITES...ICAO STATION KEHC IS REPORTING FAIR SKIES. PLATFORM SITES KCRH...KEIR...KSPR...AND KDLP ARE REPORTING NO CLOUD CEILINGS AT THE MOMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA IN PUNTA GORDA AND IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 19N NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.04 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 2N80W AND BEYOND 3N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF 700 MB SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW...ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...ALONG 24N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N67W...AND TO 16N68W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 21N IN ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS TO 12 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT TWO INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 27N64W 20N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 29N76W... TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N53W 29N60W 27N65W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.03 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W 31N60W 25N70W 23N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W...AND FROM 27N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 61W AND 71W. THIS SCENARIO IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE...THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 23N25W AND TO 14N36W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N42W WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N42W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N53W 29N60W 27N65W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT