000 AXNT20 KNHC 091048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES THROUGH 04N20W TO 02N30W TO 02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N AND 07N BETWEEN 12W AND 24W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 31W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US NEAR 33N86W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE N GULF...E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF...AND N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE SW GULF. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER THE BASIN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE NW. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE W GULF WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE BELIZE COAST NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 13N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IS CONTINUES NW ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BRING AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM 31N56W TO N CUBA NEAR 20N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 22N58W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N16W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO