000 AXNT20 KNHC 090559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING N TO NW GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT S OF 21N W OF 94W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 07N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES THROUGH 04N23W TO 01N35W TO 01N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N AND 07N BETWEEN 12W AND 24W AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE N GULF...WITH E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER THE BASIN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE W GULF WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE BELIZE COAST NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N IF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NE FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF MERGING COLD FRONTS...EXTENDING SW FROM 31N61W WITH ONE FRONT EXTENDING TO S FL NEAR 25N80W...AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO N CUBA NEAR 21N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N57W TO 11N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N16W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE COLD FRONTS WILL FINISH MERGING TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO