000 AXNT20 KNHC 082334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N61.5W TO 25N70W TO 21.5N78W. A SECONDARY FRONT IS FROM 31N66W TO 26N80W. TO THE N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM SE OF FIRST FRONT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED BY OBSERVATIONS WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF LINE FROM 24N96W TO 18.5N95W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. ...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE WILL STALL THIS EVENING AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING MINIMUM GALE FORCE TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO REPEAT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W TO 05N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 03N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THESE BOUNDARIES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES DOMINATE THE GULF STATES EXTENDING S ACROSS THE BASIN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE HIGHS AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 96W. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MODERATE NE FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NE TO E AS THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVES E REACHING THE ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N77W TO 18N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT W OF 85W AFFECTING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY W ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. PLEASE REFER THE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS DEVELOPING GALE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF GUYANA IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY SATURDAY. HISPANIOLA... STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS NE FROM 26N80W TO 31N66W THEN N INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N88W TO 22N77W TO 31N62W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THESE FRONTS AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N54W TO 07N56W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A PERSISTENT LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N44W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 12N19W BETWEEN 36W-47W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MERGE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA