000 AXNT20 KNHC 080605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... .06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 22N80W. N OF 29N W OF 77W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... .06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT MOVED TO JUST SE OF GULF. N OF 26N N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 8N13W...TO 8N14W 4N20W 2N22W...AND 1N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W TO 1N30W AND 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 17N65W...TO JAMAICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.18 IN CURACAO...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 4N80W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 17N65W...TO JAMAICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 700 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CUBA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 32N TO 17N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 19N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N51W 11N52W 6N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N45W...TO 25N64W...TO 25N72W TO THE EAST OF BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT