000 AXNT20 KNHC 072320 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY THURSDAY N OF 29N W OF 77W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 04N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 02N30W TO 05N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 27N97W TO 26N82W. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING BEHIND IT IS BRINGING DRY AND COOLER AIR TO THE AREA QUICK AND HENCE LIMITING CONVECTION. A FRESH TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN...AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-80W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 16N49W TO 07N55W IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THIS...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SE FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO 31N66W THEN N INTO THE N ATLANTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING BEHIND IT BRINGING DRY AND COOL AIR TO THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N49W TO 07N55W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 30W-50W. A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N21W IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO MOVE SE REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER- LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA