000 AXNT20 KNHC 071804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 17 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 96W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING N OF 30N W OF A COLD FRONT TO 80W WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 14 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 09N15W AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 03N30W TO 04N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN 31W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 29N96W. DRY AIR IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT IS NOT OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ENTERING THE GULF AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US MOVES SE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT N OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FL KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO 23N90W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SE TO THE FL STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HONDURAS AND N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RESTRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS...TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE N OF THE FRONT. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADEWINDS ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W. DRY AIR IS LIMITING SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30 N BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO 27N73W TO 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 12N47W TO 4N47W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 32W TO 51W. A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N23W IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SE TO 30N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO