000 AXNT20 KNHC 071205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14N FEET TO 19 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS THE GALE- FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24-HOUR FORECAST...COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 26N80W. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 80W N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED TO A POSITION THAT IS JUST SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. N OF 26N NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 96W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 36-HOUR FORECAST ALSO CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 8N13W...AND THEN IT CURVES TO 7N17W...AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W TO 1N30W AND 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N58W TO 31N63W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N63W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.19 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N90W...TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KVAF AND KATP. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING FOR THE MOMENT AT KBBF. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...BECOMING LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.39 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.03 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 3N80W...AND TO 4N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. THIS AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BETWEEN THE PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N34W...TO 22N44W...TO A 16N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N53W...AND TO 9N60W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W...AND FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N31W TO 30N44W...TO 26N57W...TO 24N75W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT