000 AXNT20 KNHC 070604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14N FEET TO 19 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 30-HOUR FORECAST...COLD FRONT FROM 31N68W TO 26N74W TO 22N79W. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 80W N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED JUST SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ENTIRE AREA N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NW TO N 30 TO 35 KT FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 96W. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT...EXCEPT TO 12 FT FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 96W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W...TO 9N15W...AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W TO 1N30W AND 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 31N65W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N65W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N93W. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.19 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ON TOP OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.39 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.03 IN CURACAO. ...HISPANIOLA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT IS TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS HAS BEEN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJANCENT WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N34W...TO 22N44W...TO A 17N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N53W...AND TO 9N60W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N35W TO 30N37W...TO 25N63W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT