000 AXNT20 KNHC 062321 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 19 FT. EXPECT FOR THE WINDS TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W AND CONTINUES TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 01N28W TO 04N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-09N BETWEEN 32W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS S FROM CENTRAL U.S. KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER AND WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM 19N94W TO 22N94W TO 25N81W. A NORTHERLY SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 23N AND W OF 93W WHERE A FRESH TO STRONG FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC EXTENDS NW REACHING THE GULF...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE INHIBITING STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE BASIN FROM THE NW WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN REACHING THE W ATLANTIC ALSO KEEPING THE AREA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WINDS TO BEGIN SUBSIDING INCLUDING THE AREA N OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJANCENT WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N80W TO 30N65W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N24W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER E OF 70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N48W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 20N AND E OF 51W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA