000 AXNT20 KNHC 061703 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES TO 03N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO 01N30W TO 03N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF AND ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W TO 22N90W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF FROM N TO S ON WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG AND JUST N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND N COLOMBIA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM THE GALE WARNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADEWINDS ARE ADVECTING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N64W TO 27N72W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND 50 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N26W SW TO 17N52W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 29N33W. NO NOTABLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. BY 36 HOURS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO