000 AXNT20 KNHC 061155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15 FEET TO 20 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N81W TO 22N93W TO 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 48 HOURS... THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 23N81W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N72W TO 28N80W. EXPECT GALE- FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 2N40W AND 2N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N30W 5N20W 5N10W 4N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 29N70W...TO 26N77W NEAR THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 26N77W...AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. THE FRONT CURVES INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N97W...TO A 1034 MB MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N98W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHHV...KHQI...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB... KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...AND KIKT. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING FOR THE MOMENT AT KVAF...KEMK...AND KGUL. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MIXED WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES...ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SOME VARIABLE VISIBILITIES/PATCHES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON KEY TO KEY WEST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.17 IN CURACAO...AND 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 76W. THIS AREA INCLUDES PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LIGHT RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH AN 81W RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N34W...TO 22N40W...TO AN 17N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N53W...AND TO 10N58W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N14W 22N30W 20N40W 11N48W 6N55W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N25W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N53W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT