000 AXNT20 KNHC 060603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 18 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 22N89W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N92W TO 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO- NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET... THE HIGHEST NEAR 19N95W...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO 2N28W...4N40W 4N46W...AND TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS... THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 22N90W TO 21N94W AND TO 18N94W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KBBF...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI... KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...AND KSPR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES...AND AT MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.17 IN CURACAO...AND 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N79W AND BEYOND 4N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH AN 81W RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 24N34W...TO 22N40W...TO AN 18N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 13N53W...AND TO 10N58W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N14W 22N30W 20N40W 11N48W 6N55W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031W MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N18W...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N29W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N38W...THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N59W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT