000 AXNT20 KNHC 051723 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 13 TO 19 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 04N06W AND CONTINUES TO 02N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 02N26W TO 04N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W TO 23N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N86W TO 27N82W AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 83W-98W. A NORTHERLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SW GULF...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING AND BECOMING STATIONARY. CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE INHIBITING STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THIS...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 28N80W TO 35N75W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A LARGE 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N41W. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF 40W BETWEEN 05N-25N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CONVECTION WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BECOMES STATIONARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA