000 AXNT20 KNHC 050005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 13 TO 19 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GALE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FROM 21N TO 24N W OF 95W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W AND CONTINUES TO 06N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N13W TO 05N16W TO 06N24W TO 04N32W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-13N BETWEEN 22W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. A GALE IS NW OF THE FRONT OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. 10- 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND N COLOMBIA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W QUICKLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO N HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADEWINDS WILL HOWEVER ADVECT ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40M48W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 27N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N28W TO 17N50W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA