000 AXNT20 KNHC 041723 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE TO 30N87W 25N92W TO 18N96W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE W-SW GULF PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ BEGINS OVER THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 04N07W AND CONTINUES TO 02N14W TO 05N24W TO 02N33W TO 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-14N BETWEEN 18W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE TO 30N87W...25N92W...18N96W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE W-SW GULF BY TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E REACHING THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ON MONDAY AND DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING THE BASIN UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH CONTINUES INHIBITING STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE W WITH THE TRADE WINDS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AMERICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS DEVELOPING ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY W. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT N OF 30N BETWEEN 35W-42W IN THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR 29N43W AND EXTENDING N INTO THE N ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE PUSHING S ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA