000 AXNT20 KNHC 041115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW ON NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W 24N92W TO 20N96W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE W-SW GULF CONTINUING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CONTINUES OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC TO 07N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N33W TO 01N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W 24N92W TO 20N96W. THE FRONT COINCIDES WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE W-SW GULF TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 30 KT ON THE CENTRAL BASIN. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE ISLAND THIS MORNING. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 14N. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE THE SW N ATLC WED MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION WILL SINK INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS MONDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR