000 AXNT20 KNHC 032344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENDING NEAR 08N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W TO 07N30W TO 05N40W TO 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM LOUISIANA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 20N92W TO NEAR 22N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 26N. NW WINDS OF 15 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FL AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RANGING FROM E TO SE AROUND 15 KT COVERS THE EASTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY OVER THE SW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN...AND 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING W ACROSS THE ISLAND. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC S OF 31N. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING CONVECTION N OF 33N OVER THE W ATLANTIC...WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC S OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N ON 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W TO THE S OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 40N40W TO 31N48W. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO