000 AXNT20 KNHC 031718 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENDING NEAR 07N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W TO 07N27W TO 05N34W TO 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 00N-07N BETWEEN 21W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS...MOST OF THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME EXCEPT OVER THE W PORTION WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 22N AND W OF 92W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N94W. THE COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N94W TO 25N96W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N96W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 16N80W COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. WITH THIS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC AND THE LOW PRESSURE S OF PANAMA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING W ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 33N. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 39N43W TO 31N49W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 44W-50W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 40W SUPPORTED BY A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 34N02W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA