000 AXNT20 KNHC 031104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 21 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N15W TO 10N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N30W TO 02N42W TO 0S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 0N-07N BETWEEN 13W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER NW LOUISIANA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N94W TO 19N96W. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTS SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT FOG N OF 26N W OF 91W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDES A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 15N76W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT. THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE S OF PANAMA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE BASIN AND ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 59W. A WEAK 1024 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF GRAND BAHAMA W OF 77W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER W ATLC W OF 60W BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N69W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 15N. THE RIDGE ON THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR