000 AXNT20 KNHC 030602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 12 TO 20 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 09N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO 0N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-07N E OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N95W FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 24N95W TO 20N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTS SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT FOG N OF 26N W OF 89W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDES A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 16N79W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT. THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MON NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 53W. A WEAK 1024 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 30N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N W OF 71W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N69W. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR