000 AXNT20 KNHC 022350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 240 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING WHILE THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W TO 2N41W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 12W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT 02/2100 UTC THERE IS A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N96W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 24N95W TO 20N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO N OF VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW N TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON TEXAS TO MOBILE BAY ALABAMA TO 29N85W IN THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PATCHY FOG OR HAZE BEING REPORTED ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW S OF THE WARM FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 89W-91W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA. THE LOW/FRONTS WILL MOVE NW AND INLAND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT REACHING FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUN THEN FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 14N81W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND E CARIBBEAN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 240 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MON NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N70W. A WEAK 1023 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 31N79W AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N59W TO 26N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND E OF THE LOW/FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE EASTERN MOST FRONT WILL DRIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS W ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW