000 AXNT20 KNHC 021739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE EVENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE 18-HOUR WIND FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TO 45 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 13 FEET TO 22 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N9W AND EXTENDS TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO TO 1N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO NEAR 29N90W AND THEN SE TO 26N85W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS. N TO NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE SE OF BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WARM FRONT. E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE N GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ELSEWHERE...EAST TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE N OF 15N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN..AND 20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IN TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMALLY A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO 26N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1025 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N59W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 28N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SPAIN EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO