000 AXNT20 KNHC 012348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT WHILE THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W 5N15W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W 4N37W TO 2N45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC AND OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AT 01/2100 UTC THERE IS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N97W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 25N94W TO 22N95W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W WHERE IT BEGINS TO MEANDER AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PATCHY FOG OR HAZE BEING REPORTED ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT AND W OF THE COLD FRONT TO INLAND TEXAS AND MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N82W ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES AND CONTINUING INTO THE FAR W ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER ARKANSAS JUST SE OF LITTLE ROCK AND A SECOND 1028 MB HIGH NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW/FRONTS WILL MOVE NW TONIGHT AND INLAND ON FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SAT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM PANAMA N ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR NAPLES AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W AND EXTENDS TO 29N57W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 27N66W THEN IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 58W. A SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONTS N OF 30N AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONTS ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL AND A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N23W TO 20N23W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERN FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON FRI. THE FLORIDA SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA BY FRI NIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SE TO A POSITION FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW