000 AXNT20 KNHC 011805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 1 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING 13 TO 18 FT AT TIMES BY FRIDAY AND 14 TO 21 FT ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N8W AND EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO TO 2N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 22N96W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N OF THE LOW TO NEAR 28N96W AND THEN E TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N89W TO 29N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS AND LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N95W TO 18N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE GULF SE OF THE FRONTS. N TO NE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS THE LOW DRIFTS N. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT N ACROSS THE N GULF COAST. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW...AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE TRADE WINDS BECOME STRONGER WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT WEST OF 67W AND EAST OF 81W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE AFFECTING JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IN TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 27N65W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO S FL NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE EXCEPTION IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N22W TO 20N21W. E TO SE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR FL AND THE BAHAMAS TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT AND MOVES N OFF THE N FL COAST BY FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO