000 AXNT20 KNHC 120002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N20W TO 2N20W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-22W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N49W TO 1N49W MOVING WEST NEAR 15-20 KT. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH SUPPORT THE LACK OF CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER VENEZUELA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N65W TO 4N66W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 61W-70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N22W TO 5N29W TO 3N33W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 2N33W TO 1N42W TO 1S50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 22W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE GULF. TROUGHING ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N87W EXTENDING SW TO 27N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS WELL AS A TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ENHANCED BY LIFTING FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT IS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 24N-29N E OF 90W WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF HIGH PRES LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. RIDGING AND MOSTLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL HAITI. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO COSTA RICA WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDING 80 NM FROM THE COASTLINES. OTHERWISE...A DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS GREATER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS REACH A MAXIMUM OF 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED N-NW OF THE ISLAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HAITI AND NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW N ATLC THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 71W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 24N64W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N60W. FARTHER EAST...A MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE FROM 28N54W TO 26N59W...AND A SECOND FROM 30N42W TO 25N49W. TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N45W TO 24N56W TO 26N60W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 30N64W. OTHERWISE...A 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N23W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO 24N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR