000 AXNT20 KNHC 190604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N13W 5N25W 7N30W 7N34W 2N43W 1N50W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N29W 13N31W 6N32W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE SAME AREA OF OVERALL CLOUDINESS FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ITCZ... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N71W 24N80W 26N89W 30N93W TO 23N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N69W AND 28N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 29N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N62W 26N70W 22N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... WAS 0.39 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN BERMUDA...AND THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC WAS...0.31 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 26N94W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MANY OF THE PLATFORM SITES. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED TO LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY... WESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 73W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY... TO THE EAST OF 73W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW... AND SOME REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.20 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.18 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC WERE...0.31 IN BERMUDA...0.15 IN GUADELOUPE...0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.09 IN ST. THOMAS AND TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W 8N80W BEYOND 8N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE PANAMA COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. TO THE EAST OF 82W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 23N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N12W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N40W 28N53W..AND 26N65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N19W TO A 17N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N35W AND 12N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE LINE 10N60W 10N50W 12N40W 15N30W 16N25W TO 27N/28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 19N33W ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 26N56W 20N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO NEAR 33N6W...ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N30W TO 33N40W 32N48W 29N55W AND 27N62W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 18N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 43W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT 31N54W 27N65W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 30N35W 26N60W 20N66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT