000 AXNT20 KNHC 180605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 7N14W...4N20W 2N30W 1N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N70W...ACROSS CAT ISLAND AND THE EXUMA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W...CURVING TO 20N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 86W/87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N70W 22N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WAS...1.19 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 22N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF... KEMK...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...AND KMDJ. THE SKY HAS BEEN CLEARING DURING THE LAST HOUR AT THE ICAO STATION KATP. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... THE VISIBILITIES WITH FOG ARE 1 MILE OR LESS IN TEXAS AT... FALFURRIAS...PALACIOS...ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN THE BEAUMONT- PORT ARTHUR AREA...INTO LAKE CHARLES AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND IN PERRY FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART. FEW TO SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY... WESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.39 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WERE...1.19 IN BERMUDA...0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.11 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W 7N79W BEYOND 9N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W... IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...TO 28N70W...AND TO 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N10W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N29W...TO 32N40W 30N49W..AND 26N65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N17W TO A 17N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N32W AND 12N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 31W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT