000 AXNT20 KNHC 012322 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN DEC 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 06N28W TO 05N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 22W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N100W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE COASTAL GULF PLAINS AS THE STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE SE CONUS SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ALABAMA. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN THEIR VICINITY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY MONDAY. THEREAFTER INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WITHIN NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT SUPPORTS A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N63W TO 21N67W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 68W THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF PANAMA. LOOKING AHEAD...A FAIRLY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TRADES REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. ...HISPANIOLA... RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS ARE LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 22N67W TO 20N71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 67W TO A BASE NEAR 20N67W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N53W TO 31N60W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT SW TO 27N68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 19N-32N BETWEEN 53W-70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED FARTHER WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND ALONG 81W TO 28N. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED N OF 28N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...OVER THE EASTERN ATLC A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N26W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N26W AND A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N28W. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MERGE IN THE VICINITY OF 34N25W AND CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY N OF 28N BETWEEN 16W-26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN