000 AXNT20 KNHC 261746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF AND IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT WED MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SE U.S. COAST. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 7N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N21W TO 5N26W TO 7N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 4W- 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 27W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W TO 18N91W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THUS REMAINS IN THE WARM AIRMASS SECTION. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF AND N FLORIDA E OF THE COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF... AND OVER THE NE GULF NEAR THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N97W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION NW OF FRONT. CONVECTION WILL BE PREDOMINATELY SE OF FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA ...AND NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA W OF 82W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W TO BEYOND NW COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TO BE OVER THE ISLAND IN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS IN THE WARM AIRMASS E OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N63W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N49W TO 28N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA