000 AXNT20 KNHC 260005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 31N86W...JUST INLAND...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N88W 23N90W AND 19N92W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS TEXAS...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE CURRENT SURFACE SCENARIO CONSISTS OF A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N93W AND 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N86W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N94W AND 18N92W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF THE COASTAL BORDERS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 5N25W 7N36W AND 5N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KVAF ALSO WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI... KGBK WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 2 MILES WITH FOG...KEHC.....KEIR AND KSPR AND KATP WITH VISIBILITY 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KMYT...KIPN WITH VISIBILITY 1 MILE AND FOG...KDLP...KMDJ...KAXO...AND K9F2. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KATP AND KIPN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE PREVALENT FROM PALACIOS TEXAS NORTHWARD... AND POSSIBLE AND COMPARATIVELY LESS PREVALENT TO THE SOUTH OF PALACIOS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS PREVAIL IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. RAIN IS MIXED IN WITH THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA FROM PERRY FLORIDA WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 23N84W TO 25N87W...BECOMING A WARM FRONT TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 19N92W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 87W ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL START WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...IN A NORTHWEST-TO- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO 15N70W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 16N60W 16N70W 16N80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 2.02 IN TRINIDAD...AND 1.56 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N77W 7N81W...BEYOND 9N84W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 18-HOUR FORECAST...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N60W 24N70W AND 22N77W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N77W TO 22N82W ACROSS CUBA...AND TO 24N86W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N23W...THROUGH 33N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N37W...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N40W. ANOTHER PART OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO 19N50W AND 19N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 18N TO 25N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N52W 28N52W 25N51W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N54W TO 25N66W TO 22N76W THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N81W. N OF FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT BETWEEN FRONT AND LINE FROM 31N69W TO 28N73W TO 26N78W AND 8 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF SAME LINE. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST INCLUDES WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT