000 AXNT20 KNHC 221200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 48 HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT 29N83W TO 24N95W TO 18N95W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 8N13W TO 6N14W 4N20W AND 4N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N23W TO 8N34W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 3W AND 5W...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 58W AND 59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 32N82W IN GEORGIA...TO WESTERN CUBA... BEYOND CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N IN RANDOM AND DISORGANIZED AREAS OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N AND TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KVAF...KEMK...KEIR...KMYT...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LOWER AND LIGHT RAIN ARE MIXED WITH THE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AND RAIN...COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE AREA AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES...COVER COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. PERRY IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO NAPLES...AND TO MARATHON KEY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST FOR GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN HAITI TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ALONG 9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 22N57W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N50W 26N60W AND 25N62W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N62W TO 26N72W AND 26N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N41W 24N45W 17N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 26N50W 23N60W 24N70W AND 24N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N22W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N20W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N41W 24N45W 17N49W SURFACE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N42W TO 26N65W THEN SHEAR LINE TO 26N80W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A SECOND COLD FRONT 31N76W TO 30N81W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT