000 AXNT20 KNHC 151805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS BORDER AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL AND WESTERN GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N19W TO 9N20W 5N29W 7N33W 6N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 50W. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 29N22W...TO A 26N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N33W...AND 6N37W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF 6N36W 16N31W 25N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 40W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N50W 22N60W TO 21N73W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N73W TO 22N80W 23N90W AND 20N94W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN MERIDA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS INLAND FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 103W IN MEXICO. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 23N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 88W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA. FAIR SKIES APPEAR ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE WIND FLOW AT 700 MB WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE WIND FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY...EASTERLY...AND NORTHERLY...DURING THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTH...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AS IT WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN 85W RIDGE FOR 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...ALONG 66W/67W FROM 9N IN COASTAL VENEZUELA TO 15N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.03 IN CURACAO...AND 0.04 IN TRINIDAD. OTHER TOTALS ARE 0.23 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.14 IN ST. THOMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 71W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W... BEYOND 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N77W 11N81W 12N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STORNG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE BORDERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 9N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 28N37W AND TO 20N50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N47W TO 22N65W THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N77W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET...EXCEPT 12 TO 15 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 57W...TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 65W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FEET FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 70W TO THE BAHAMAS. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT