000 AXNT20 KNHC 130006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13/0000 UTC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE GULF WATERS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13/0600 UTC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO 12N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N23W 7N34W TO 8N39W. THE ITCZ IS DISRUPTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 43W FROM 6N-13N AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W/51W FROM 8N13W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO BEYOND N TEXAS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/2100 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ACROSS SE LOUISIANA S OF NEW ORLEANS ALONG 28N94W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR SARASOTA ALONG 25N89W TO MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONT COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF AND ANCHORED BY A 1047 MB HIGH OVER KANSAS. THIS IS CLEARING SKIES W OF THE FRONT WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM FLORIDA E PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA STRAITS TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THU THEN LIFT NW FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVES E TO THE CAROLINAS BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS S OF E PANAMA THEN OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATE SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 78W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 66W-77W AND FROM 17N- 20N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH GULF AND STALL ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED THEN LIFT N OF AREA LATE THU. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE E TIP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 60W. A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ONE FROM 29N79W TO BEYOND 32N76W...SECOND FROM 30N64W TO 26N75W...THIRD FROM 32N58W ALONG 29N58W TO 27N59W...FOURTH FROM 32N48W TO 27N52W...AND THE FINAL FROM 32N42W TO 26N38W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH WED. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT REACHING FROM 32N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED MORNING FROM 32N62W EVENING AND FROM 32N56W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 24N THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW