000 AXNT20 KNHC 091148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 11N185W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N27W 4N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 38W- 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N31W TO 7N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WHICH BECOMES STATIONARY JUST S OF NAPLES FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 24N88W 22N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 22N W OF 95W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 80W-87W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FRONT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SE AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE TUE THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 74W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTING THE AREA FROM 15N-22N W OF 80W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 74W-80W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE THIS MORNING. DRY STABLE AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N60W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N69W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE BECOMING STATIONARY JUST S OF NAPLES FLORIDA BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N76W ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N54W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W N OF 23N SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N54W TO 31N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 23N48W TO BEYOND 32N42W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 38W FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N52W TO 7N56W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N57W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW