000 AXNT20 KNHC 010607 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 12N90W AND IS DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. FROM THE PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER EL SALVADOR AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS WESTERN HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N35W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-09N E OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N57W. SURFACE RIDGING IN THIS REGION IS BEING REINFORCED BY AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN CENTRAL MEXICO AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW GULF FROM 28N96W TO 25N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO 25N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF DOMINATES THE WESTERN BASIN. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-76W. A MIDDLE- LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 11N66W. UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR CONVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE FROM 29N53W SW TO 20N60W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N51W TO 18N61W AND A LINE FROM 30N59W TO 20N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO 08N56W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR