000 AXNT20 KNHC 311036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N82W TO 10N82W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 78W-87W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N11W AND CONTINUES TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO 07N40W 07N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N E OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N66W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN BASIN WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COASTLINE. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N82W TO 10N82W. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 78W- 87W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 68W. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE E PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRIDAY NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO THE MONA PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY BEING SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N55W TO 26N58W TO 18N68W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 25N58W TO 20N59W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 52W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 57W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N52W TO 09N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 17W-27W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 19N IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR