000 AXNT20 KNHC 220604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.3N 53.8W. LORENZO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N45W 10N45W 7N44W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. PART OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ ALSO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 36W AND 51W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N72W 13N73W 8N74W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA OF A PERSISTENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 10N20W 7N25W AND 4N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N28W TO 3N32W 6N39W 7N46W 9N50W 10N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W... AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N68W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 66W...AND FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALL THE TIME. FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND INCLUDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KHQI...KIPN...KVBS...AND KMDJ. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT KEMK. A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES WITH FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KATP. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST WITH SPOTTY LOW VISIBILITIES AT THE MOMENT. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF COASTAL TEXAS... INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM VALPARAISO WESTWARD. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER PERRY FLORIDA AND PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA. A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES WITH FOG IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE GENERAL AIRPORT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 18- HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N88W 27N94W 20N96.5W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W... BEYOND 10N85W IN WESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA...WESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 74W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 24N19W TO 19N30W...TO A 20N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 30N25W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING ALONG 30N25W 30N30W 29N34W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N30W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT