000 AXNT20 KNHC 211145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED AND IT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS LOW CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT- LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. PART OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ ALSO. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE SPEED HAS SLOWED DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA OF A PERSISTENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N21W TO 6N26W 5N34W...TO 6N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 14N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 27N64W AND 29N62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW... WILL COVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOW THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR MORE OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND INCLUDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 26N88W 22N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N75W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N90W TO 23N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE WEST OF 93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO 25N90W AND 22N90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KGUL...KBQX... KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KIPN...KMDJ...KDLP...AND KVBS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36- HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N85W 23N96W 19N96W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.34 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AT THE COAST AND 78W...IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND IN AND NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 25N18W 17N32W AND 14N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 28N24W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N33W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W...BEYOND 32N47W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 6 HOUR FORECAST...OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N55W...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT