000 AXNT20 KNHC 061132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 91.7W AT 06/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 87 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MOVING NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS THEN LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 86W-90W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N23W TO 5N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 21W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO 8N56W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 55W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 12N21W TO 7N27W TO 6N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N32W TO 6N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CONVECTION AND SHOWERS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 90W WHILE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM LOUISIANA AT 30N93W TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND MERGE WITH KAREN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF KAREN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MEANWHILE OVER THE NE GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY SINCE A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N66W TO 23N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 54W-66W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N32W TO 25N35W TO 20N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA