000 AXNT20 KNHC 060005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 91.7W AT 05/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 100 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...MOVING NORTH AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE CENTER FROM 25N- 29N BETWEEN 89W-91W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-91W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 11N24W AND MOVES W AT ABOUT 15 KT. EVEN THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE ITCZ...STRONG SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS NE OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 19W-21W COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N53W TO 18N52W AND MOVES W- NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SOUTH OF THE WAVE AXIS...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW COLLOCATED WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 46W-57W. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N60W TO 18N59W AND MOVES W NEAR 5 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N60W SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W...THEN CONTINUES ALONG 07N22W TO 06N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N30W TO 07N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N57W. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE ONLY MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE GULF IS TROPICAL STORM KAREN WHICH IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS. DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION OF KAREN WHILE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR KEEPS IT EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN...MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS IN THE BASIN WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 11N AND THE SW WESTERN CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MOISTURE ABOUNDS BASIN WIDE. THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 10N48W COVERS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN BASIN. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THESE TWO RIDGES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AS WELL AS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 77W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 11N BETWEEN 78W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO DURING SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 10N48W COVERS THE CENTRAL- EASTERN BASIN. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THESE TWO RIDGES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE UPPER- LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUAL RAINSHOWERS MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH SW ATLC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO 20N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE AXIS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N44W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND IS ALONG 30N33W TO 25N34W WITH NO CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS