000 AXNT20 KNHC 051800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.9N 91.8W AT 05/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 115 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 22W FROM 05N TO 12N AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LATITUDE WAVE IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A NARROW BAND FROM 12.5N20W TO 10N23.5W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 51W/52W FROM 11N TO 20N AND IS MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W FROM 12N TO 19N AND IS MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 3 DEGREES EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 09N20W TO 06N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N29W TO 08N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 07N59W. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN HAITI TO 15N76W TO CENTRAL PANAMA. WEST OF THE TROUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE N TO NE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF ABOUT 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. HISPANIOLA... DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES COVERS THE ATLANTIC N OF ABOUT 18N. FIRST A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N70W. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 58W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 43W AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N28W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. FINALLY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 18N E OF 18W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THERE ARE THREE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE ATLANTIC...ALONG 76W FROM 23N TO 29N...ALONG 64W FROM 21N TO 29N...AND FROM 31N33W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AT 64W CONTINUING EASTWARD TO 60W. A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED AT 26N46W...MOVING N ABOUT 10 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB