000 AXNT20 KNHC 241802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N26W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS FROM 12N-23N E OF 40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N- 18N BETWEEN 26W-31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N42W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N52W TO AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW AT 19N53W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW AND WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF S SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO 12N20W TO 13N24W TO 8N30W TO 5N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 23W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 25N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-21N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING E. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT E. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 80W- 87W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA TO S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS NE FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W MOVING W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA IS VOID OF CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N65W A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N65W TO 27N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N70W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONTS TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 33N38W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER S AT 25N34W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N16W TO 29N21W TO 29N26W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTONUES W FROM 29N26W TO 29N35W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 29N35W TO 29N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N53W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER ISPRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N55W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA