000 AXNT20 KNHC 130558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 94.2W AT 13/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 120 NM E-NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 NM E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 90W- 97W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF E MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 29.7W AT 13/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 547 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 25W-30W. TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.1N 67.7W AT 13/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 390 NM S-SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 600 NM S-SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING N-NE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 33N-41W BETWEEN 64W-69W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 7N27W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONTINUE TO BE DISRUPTED BY HURRICANE HUMBERTO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A 1005 MB LOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR 17N55W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 10N48W TO 18N54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IN THE S GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING RAIN OVER MEXICO. SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 92W AND IS CENTERED JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SE LOUISIANA. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN COVERS THE S GULF S OF 25N. THIS IS CREATING A VERY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE S GULF. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHILE FOLLOWING A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OF TAMPICO BY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 72W- 80W. GENTLE WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S HAITI. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W BRINGING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE E ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TO BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N58W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W-57W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N45W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 43- 47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 40W-44W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED COVER THE W ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW