000 AXNT20 KNHC 100549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 25.9W AT 10/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 105 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 13.5N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 25W-31W. THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW OF GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W MOVING N-NE NEAR 10-15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE 1009 MB LOW CONTINUING ALONG 24N69W TO 22N71W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 25N-29N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 61W-67W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 24N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 18N43W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE/LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 44W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 17N93W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO/YUCATAN S OF 21N E OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. THE ITCZ BEGINS SW OF HUMBERTO NEAR 7N35W TO 10N52W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-22W AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE GULF NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO 23N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 26N87W. THIS IS INDUCING UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER SE LOUISIANA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE COVERING ALL BUT THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS ALONG 26N92W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 28N E OF 84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES THROUGH SAT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF BY WED AND LINGER THROUGH SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A MORE IDENTIFIABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 17N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 73W-76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LOW IS IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TRADE WINDS ARE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH INTO FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER DOES REMAIN AND THE CHANCE OF A ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE W ACROSS THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. EXPECT THE DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT ARE TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IN THE E ATLC AND THE 1009 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY GABRIELLE IN THE W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N76W AND EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 68W-76W AND S OF 27N BETWEEN BETWEEN 72W-78W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N45W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 40W-45W. AN UPPER LOW IS E OF THE WIND WARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N60W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 22N BETWEEN 50-70W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N57W TO 12N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 56W-60W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA TUE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE WILL CONTINUE NE EXITING THE AREA TUE EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW