000 AXNT20 KNHC 251155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0900 UTC A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W MOVING SLOWLY W-NW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N31W TO 9N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT... AND SSMI IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 17N64W TO 7N65W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 63W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 67W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 13N17W TO 11N23W TO 12N37W TO 8N44W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N59W. A SMALL 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 12N46W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 45W-50W. BESIDES THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 15W- 20W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS S OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 94W. FURTHER N...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-93W. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE N FLORIDA ALONG 30N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W- 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE W-NW WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIP TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W/65W. SEE ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. ELSEWHERE...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE W OVER CUBA. ALSO EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM 32N73W TO 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE AZORES AT 44N26W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 20N-30N E OF 50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO DIP TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA