000 AXNT20 KNHC 250547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0300 UTC A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W MOVING SLOWLY WNW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-95W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO 8N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS INDICTAED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT... AND SSMI IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N61W TO 10N63W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W TO 12N30W TO 10N41W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N41W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 8N60W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 12N45W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. BESIDES THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 12W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE THE SPEACIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS S OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N95W TO 24N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-93W. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THR YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE WNW WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALSO EXPECT THE COLF FRONT TO DIP TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W/63W. SEE ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. ELSEWHERE...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE W OVER CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM 34N70W TO 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE AZORES AT 44N26W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 20N-30N E OF 50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO DIP TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA